US labour is 16 an hour while China is 60 cents Solve your trade problem at a stroke.In fact, China is following a very successful blueprint for success. This is a key reason why China will resist US attempts to revalue the yuan. Shipping costs are up fourfold, while the stock prices of many shipping companies have tripled.To pay for all this, China is accumulating large amounts of foreign currency through exports - particularly to the US - and is also the world's biggest recipient of direct investment. And some.The country's infrastructure is poor, so it is easier to import from Australia and South Africa than transport from central China. Guess which have been two of the strongest currencies in the world this year? Meanwhile, Argentinians are benefiting from Chinese demand for soya, cotton, diamonds and timber. Base metals, precious metals and raw materials have all risen sharply. For example, nickel, used in stainless steel, is up 75 per cent on the year. While the US was going through its cyclical slowdown, China provided all the growth in demand for metals globally for two years Now America is back, demand is exceeding supply. US labour is $16 an hour, while China is 60 cents.Statistics on China astonish. Massive urbanisation means the country has, in effect, to build a city the size of Phila- delphia every month And that takes a lot of raw materials. This is where we start to see the impact of China on the world around it.
For all the talk of global recession, a spectacular bull run has been going on in commodities, almost unnoticed. Talk of tariffs and uncompetitive exchange rates abounds - though how anyone with even elementary maths can think that a 40 per cent revaluation of the Chinese yuan (it is pegged to the dollar) will address the difference in labour costs is beyond me. But just as astronomers detect the existence of massive objects indirectly, by observing their impact on other planets, so we find that many of the "unusual" aspects of world markets over the last two or three years are almost certainly attributable to the emergence of China.Direct observation of China has come from the large trade imbalance with the US, which has fuelled the protectionist flame that always burns ahead of US elections. Excitable stories of the impact of "everyone in China buying just one can of Coke" have come to nought - as have the stories of what would happen if the whole population jumped in the air at the same time. There has been some amusing, even Pythonesque, wriggling among some of the more high-profile Jeremiahs, but we need to move on. For while we have been busy arguing over the US, something far more significant has been going on. China has been the big story waiting to happen for so long that most people have given up. Over two centuries ago, Napoleon referred to it as "like a sleeping giant and when she awakes she shall astonish the world". But she has continued to sleep and in the meantime, of course, the giant that has astonished the world has been America. The latest figures from the US must surely now have closed the chapter on the US depression that never was. With a recent spate of Jarvis board appointments - including former Parliamentary Standards Commissioner Elizabeth Filkin as non-executive director - shareholders believe it is now time for Mr Moayedi to step down.. The promotion went against established corporate governance practice. |
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